SpaceX IPO: The $1.75T Cosmic Gamble

The newly released SpaceX S‑1 isn’t a traditional IPO filing, it reads like a manifesto. Instead of sober financial disclosures, it opens with 14 pages of photographs, repeating the phrase "extending the light of consciousness to the stars". It warns investors that humanity must avoid "the fate of the dinosaurs" and pitches future business lines such as asteroid mining, lunar manufacturing, and rocket‑based city‑to‑city travel.

💸The $1.75T Valuation Disconnect 

A staggering P/S of 94x–107x, nearly double NVIDIA’s historical peak and a negative P/E due to a $4.94B net loss in 2025 and a $4.28B burn in Q1 2026, disclose hard numbers! Added to the S&P 500, would rank 7 by market cap, while below 200 for revenue, comparable to Kellogg Company. 

⚡Striking

The filing implies that 93% of the company’s value comes from AI (Grok), not rockets, not satellites!

📉Financial Fragility 

2025 revenue hit $18.7B, but losses reached $4.94B, with $37B accumulated deficits, the largest of any company ever going public.

🤖The AI Rebranding Problem 

 SpaceX now claims a $28.5T TAM, larger than U.S. GDP. Grok holds just 3.4% market share, and internal engineers reportedly prefer competing tools. Musk even attempted a $60B acquisition of Cursor to fix Grok’s weaknesses.

🛰️Starlink: The Only Cash Engine, and Under Pressure 

Starlink generated $4.4B operating profit, but ARPU has fallen 18% since 2023. Starlink V3 satellites require Starship, a rocket still in the “rapid unscheduled disassembly” phase.

⚠️Governance & Legal Shields 

Musk controls 85% of voting power despite owning 41% equity. Texas incorporation further limits shareholder rights, including restricted discovery and a 3% lawsuit threshold (~$52B).

📊Graypes AI Rating classifies the IPO as: 5.87/10.00 - AVOID 

❌ SpaceX has rebranded as an AI powerhouse, claiming 93% of its TAM is AI-related. However, the AI segment is a "financial black hole", losing $2.5B in Q1 2026. 

❌ Governance is a "fortified dictatorship," with Musk holding 85% voting power and strict legal shields in Texas.

❌ AVOID, for value-disciplined investors. The IPO is a "liquidity rescue" at an indefensible valuation, favoring mainly the cash flow of the key investors and banks holding bridge loans of SpaceX, like Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Citi, J.P. Morgan, Barkleys, Deutsche Bank, UBS, Wells Fargo, etc.

❌ SPECULATIVE BUY: Only for those betting on the binary success of Starship, idealize Elon Musk, believing that he can successfully extend the "light of consciousness", and investors willing to take the risk (or hedge) of an expected 35–65% value drop in the first weeks of trading.

❗ Pragmatic Strategy: WAIT, for post-IPO price discovery and evidence of Starship’s commercial scalability before establishing a position.